If you’ve been keeping an eye on farming costs this year, you’ve probably noticed that fertilizer prices are still high — and not showing signs of cooling.

At Chomp Energy, we track these market shifts closely because they ripple across agriculture, food supply chains, and energy markets. And right now, several global forces are converging to keep global fertilizer prices elevated — from the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war to new trade tariffs on key imports.

Let’s break down what’s going on:

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The Russia–Ukraine Conflict and Geopolitical Tensions Constrain Supply

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Both Russia–one of the world’s largest fertilizer exporters, supplying about a quarter of Europe’s imports and a large share of the U.S. market–and Belarus–a major potash producer—are under heavy sanctions and tariffs imposed by the European Union in response to the ongoing war with Ukraine.

And China has been prioritizing domestic supply of their fertilizer over exports, resulting in a 90% year over year decrease in nitrogen fertilizer exports from that market, fundamentally impacting global supply. 

So not only are exports restricted, but the product hitting the market is priced high.

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Tariffs Are Adding Fuel to the Fire

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• In Europe: The EU rolled out new tariffs this summer on nitrogen fertilizers from Russia and Belarus. These duties — starting at 6.5% plus a per-ton surcharge — are projected to climb sharply over the next few years. For farmers in Europe, that’s already translating into higher prices for staples like urea.
  
  
• In the U.S.: New import tariffs kicked in this August on fertilizers from certain countries, including Canada, in some cases doubling previous rates, putting additional pressure on already-tight US farming margins. Fertilizer costs can account for 30% of row crop costs, and farmers are calling for relief.

Market data indicates a 15% increase in the World Bank's fertilizer price index during the first quarter of 2025 and the Bank projects that fertilizer costs will rise about 7% overall in 2025. The Bank reports that triple superphosphate (TSP) prices are up 43% this year, while diammonium phosphate (DAP) has risen 23%. Global demand for urea is also up, pushing prices higher. 

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The Bottom Line

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We’re experiencing a perfect storm: geopolitical conflict, tariffs and restricted exports. In addition, the energy-intensive nature of nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing ensures continued correlation between energy market volatility and fertilizer pricing dynamics. As a result, agricultural operators are increasingly evaluating alternative nutrient management strategies, including organic fertilizer integration.

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For organizations generating significant organic waste streams, on-site anaerobic digestion systems present an opportunity to develop independent nutrient production capacity while reducing exposure to global market volatility. This approach offers both cost mitigation and supply chain resilience benefits in the current elevated price environment.

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For farmers, food producers, and anyone tied to agriculture, this creates both a challenge and an opportunity. Businesses and organizations that produce food waste can take control of their own supply by investing in an anaerobic digester. This technology transforms food waste into affordable, nutrient-rich biofertilizer — for your own use or to share with your local community — reducing dependence on volatile global markets.

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At Chomp Energy, we’re continuously innovating to improve the quality of our biofertilizer. You can read more about the latest advancements in our production technology here: View the update on LinkedIn

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